How every score is built.
If a number can't be explained, it can't be trusted. This page describes every input, every weight and every limitation of our scoring, in plain language.
Three scores, one scale
Growth score
How strong the evidence for near-term price growth is. Combines momentum, demand and scarcity metrics. Higher is stronger.
Risk score
How exposed the suburb is to downside: oversupply, single-industry employment, price volatility, flood and fire zones. Lower is safer.
Stability score
How consistently the suburb has performed over ten years: smaller drawdowns, steadier rents, less churn. Higher is steadier.
Four steps, no tuning by hand
- 01
Normalise
Every metric is converted to a percentile against all 15,300 suburbs, so a reading means the same thing in Perth as in Hobart.
- 02
Weight
Each percentile is multiplied by its published weight. Weights are fitted to how well the metric predicted 12-month price movements over the past decade.
- 03
Sum and flag
The weighted sum is the score. Suburbs with fewer than 30 sales in the period carry a wide-band flag on the report.
- 04
Audit
Every January the previous year's scores are checked against actual price movements and the results are published, misses included.
What goes into the growth score
Nine metrics, each normalised against every suburb nationally, then weighted by how well it has predicted 12-month price movements over the past decade. Weights are re-fitted yearly and published here when they change.
Last re-fit: January 2026.
| Metric | What it measures | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Sales momentum | Quarterly change in median sale price, smoothed over 12 months | 18% |
| Listing scarcity | Stock on market as a share of total dwellings, vs 5-year norm | 15% |
| Rental demand | Vacancy rate and rental growth relative to state benchmark | 14% |
| Days on market | How quickly stock sells vs the suburb's own history | 12% |
| Infrastructure investment | Committed public spending within the catchment, per capita | 11% |
| Jobs access | Employment within a 30-minute commute, weighted by growth | 10% |
| Population growth | 3-year population change vs dwelling completions | 8% |
| Income growth | Change in median household income across census periods | 7% |
| New supply pressure | Approved dwellings as a share of existing stock (negative weight) | −5% |
Every metric names its source and refresh date
Open government data is the foundation; commercial feeds add listing activity. The main categories:
Sales and rental records
WeeklyState valuer-general transaction records and rental bond lodgements from all eight jurisdictions. Refreshed weekly; settlement lag noted per state.
Listings and market activity
DailyListing volumes, days on market and asking-price changes from major portal feeds. Auction results where markets run them.
Census and demographics
As publishedABS Census, regional population estimates, SEIFA indices and income data, aggregated from SA2 up to suburb.
Planning and infrastructure
MonthlyDevelopment approvals, committed infrastructure projects and zoning changes from state planning portals.
Addresses and geography
QuarterlyG-NAF for address resolution; ABS statistical boundaries and suburb localities for every aggregation.
Rates and hazards
MonthlyRBA cash-rate series, plus flood, bushfire and storm-surge overlays from state emergency and geoscience datasets.
What the scores can't do
We would rather you trust the scores for the right reasons than for the wrong ones.
- They do not predict prices. A high growth score means the current evidence is strong, not that growth is guaranteed. Markets get shocked.
- Suburbs are not properties. A great suburb contains bad streets and bad buildings. Scores narrow the search; inspection and due diligence finish it.
- Thin markets are noisy. Suburbs with few sales get wider confidence bands, and we show them. A score built on 14 sales is flagged as such.
- This is not financial advice. PropNinja is general information. Your circumstances, tax position and finance matter; talk to licensed professionals.
Every year we audit the previous year's scores against actual price movements and publish the results, hits, misses and all. The 2025 audit is on the insights page.
See the method applied.
Open a real report and check every number against its source.
Open a sample report